Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.885512 1.992663 2.104868 2.231510 2.370940 2.520300 2.693109
2025-10-12 1.748452 1.900333 2.066911 2.264613 2.494787 2.756753 3.081059
2025-10-19 1.660841 1.839542 2.041847 2.290638 2.592380 2.951999 3.421817
2025-10-26 1.575885 1.770195 1.995489 2.280248 2.636979 3.078421 3.681991
2025-11-02 1.506010 1.711415 1.954338 2.268580 2.673408 3.191328 3.929538
2025-11-09 1.439322 1.651152 1.905787 2.241607 2.684634 3.268049 4.131078
2025-11-16 1.380103 1.596085 1.859384 2.212548 2.688382 3.331609 4.316495
2025-11-23 1.341109 1.563619 1.838741 2.214180 2.731195 3.449648 4.591533
2025-11-30 1.313056 1.543100 1.831525 2.231932 2.795639 3.601586 4.934153
2025-12-07 1.268149 1.498828 1.790967 2.201636 2.789294 3.647638 5.110671
2025-12-14 1.222741 1.452031 1.744863 2.160874 2.764511 3.662642 5.235111
2025-12-21 1.181943 1.409716 1.702872 2.123448 2.741719 3.677902 5.360057
2025-12-28 1.168471 1.403268 1.709198 2.155039 2.824421 3.867652 5.825815
2026-01-04 1.155802 1.397264 1.715633 2.186768 2.909071 4.068082 6.344890
2026-01-11 1.141541 1.388392 1.717435 2.211342 2.983606 4.257948 6.876719
2026-01-18 1.116762 1.364302 1.696928 2.201527 3.002288 4.352272 7.226675
2026-01-25 1.093096 1.340918 1.676431 2.190502 3.017850 4.441729 7.581426
2026-02-01 1.066193 1.312247 1.647378 2.165008 3.007688 4.482849 7.833058
2026-02-08 1.040089 1.283950 1.617913 2.137530 2.992392 4.512710 8.063302
2026-02-15 1.024145 1.269330 1.607572 2.139074 3.026093 4.638318 8.554793
2026-02-22 1.013514 1.261787 1.607118 2.155861 3.086767 4.822100 9.241046
2026-03-01 0.990257 1.235790 1.578820 2.127210 3.065849 4.840196 9.480629
2026-03-08 0.965163 1.206629 1.545092 2.088639 3.025267 4.814709 9.592095